thanx OX - I'm wondering about this inflation thing -
Why would the Fed use an inflation hedge?
Could it be we get a bit of stagflation?
Friday October 19, 1:00 pm Eastern Time
ECRI weekly index edges higher in latest week
NEW YORK, Oct 19 (Reuters) - A weekly index of U.S. economic activity
rose modestly last week, but its growth rate fell to a 10-month low,
indicating the U.S. economy is unlikely to stage a quick rebound from its
current slump, the Economic Cycle Research Institute said on Friday.
ECRI's Weekly Leading Index inched higher to 115.5 in the week ended Oct. 12 after a small downward
revision of last week's reading to 114.9 from 115.2. The weekly readings are revised periodically, and the
revisions to last week's figure made it the lowest reading in over four years.
The index's growth rate, which compares the four-week moving average with its behavior over the
preceding year, fell for the ninth consecutive week to -8.2 percent -- its lowest reading since January --
from a downwardly revised -7.5 one week earlier.
Analysts say a reading in the growth rate between zero and -3.0 percent suggests an economic slowdown,
while a reading below -4.0 percent points to recession. The growth rate has been at recessionary levels for
four straight weeks.
The larger economic picture is clearly dependent on whether consumer confidence continues to hold up,
said ECRI Research Director Anirvan Banerji, adding that as companies to cut jobs, the risk of entering a
vicious cycle of layoffs and economic stagnation increases.
``The extent to which we get into this cycle or break out of it will determine how bad this recession gets,''
he said.
Rises in mortgage applications and modest gains in the stock market -- partly a result of the government's
efforts to stimulate the economy through increased liquidity and lower interest rates -- helped lift the index,
said Banerji.
``The issue is whether this stimulus, while it's clearly having some effect in some areas, is by itself
sufficient to revive the economy,'' he said.
The Weekly Leading Index is composed of a balance of seven major economic indicators.
ECRI designs short- and long-term indexes aimed at predicting business cycles, recessions and recoveries
in the world's leading economies.
Historical data
---------------
Week ending Level Growth rate
Oct 12 115.5 -8.2
Oct 05 114.9 -7.5
Sep 28 115.2 -6.2
Sep 21 116.1 -4.6
Sep 14 117.8 -3.5
Sep 07 118.9 -3.0
Aug 31 119.8 -2.6
Aug 24 119.4 -2.3
Aug 17 119.4 -1.7
Aug 10 120.1 -1.1
Aug 03 120.9 -1.3
Jul 27 121.3 -2.0
Jul 20 121.4 -2.4
Jul 13 120.0 -2.8
Jul 06 119.6 -2.3
Jun 29 120.5 -1.6
Jun 22 120.9 -1.3
Jun 15 121.4 -1.3
Jun 08 121.7 -1.9
Jun 01 121.5 -2.3
May 25 121.0 -2.7
May 18 120.4 -3.5
May 11 121.0 -4.3
May 04 120.8 -5.5
Apr 27 119.4 -6.7
Apr 20 118.7 -7.3
Apr 13 118.5 -7.7
Apr 06 118.2 -7.8
Mar 30 118.4 -7.5
Mar 23 118.3 -7.0
Mar 16 118.9 -6.6
Mar 09 119.5 -6.2
Mar 02 120.3 -5.9
Feb 23 119.8 -5.5
Feb 16 120.5 -4.9
Feb 09 120.9 -4.1
Feb 02 121.8 -3.7
Jan 26 121.7 -4.7
Jan 19 122.9 -6.8
Jan 12 122.3 -8.5
Jan 05 119.8 -9.4
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