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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: Bilow who wrote (7217)	10/23/2001 11:35:39 PM
From: CIMA	Read Replies (1) of 281500

Southwest Saudi Arabia: Hotbed of Radical Islam October 23, 2001 Summary Saudi Arabia's interior minister has warned members of the security forces against sympathizing with Islamic radicals. The unusually public comments reveal mounting uncertainty within the royal family over the loyalty of security forces. The U.S.-led war against terrorism has revealed a rift within Saudi society, and dissent from inhabitants of the southwest region may threaten the government in Riyadh. Analysis At an annual security conference in eastern Saudi Arabia, Interior Minister Prince Nayef warned security forces against sympathizing with Islamists opposed to the regime, the official Saudi Press Agency reported Oct. 18. Nayef's remarks -- unusually public for the notoriously secretive government -- suggest that Riyadh doubts the loyalty of security forces. The government has reason for suspicion. Dissatisfaction with the royal family's extravagant spending has simmered just beneath the surface of Saudi society for years. In the southwest several seemingly unrelated incidents suggest growing unhappiness with the government in Riyadh and its relationship with the United States. Although a popular uprising in Saudi Arabia is unlikely, rebellion from within the security forces or organized Islamic militants from the southwest is possible. The government's strict control over all aspects of society has so far kept organized political opposition in check. But growing animosity among citizens toward Riyadh's relationship with Washington -- evidenced by recent protests -- has prompted the royal family to reconsider the basing of U.S. troops on Saudi soil. Splits within the royal family pose a political problem for the United States. But the emergence of radical Islamic opposition could force Riyadh's hand, resulting in the expulsion of U.S. troops and a drawdown in ties with Washington. Saudi Royal Politics Are Quicksand for U.S. At the Tip of the Arabian Peninsula, A Contest For Influence -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Note: this is an abbreviated version of a full-length STRATFOR report previously seen by our Members. To access STRATFOR's complete range of in-depth, objective intelligence and analysis on the globe, including our award-winning daily full text and graphics reports, click here and become a Member today!

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