DJ] MARKET TALK: Comex Silver Risks Drop To $3.60/Oz Long-Term
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DJ MARKET TALK:Comex Silver Risks Drop To $3.60/Oz Long-Term
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1634 GMT (Dow Jones) Now that rally in spot silver off pre-Sept. 11 $4.11/oz
low to $4.69 completed, JP Morgan Chase sees negative turn in longer-term
outlook, with $4.15 as initial target and risk of dropping to $3.60-$3.80
later. But still expects advance back to $4.35-$4.45 range in coming wks. Comex
Dec dn 2.8c at $4.215/oz. (DGB)
1548 GMT (Dow Jones) Phelps Dodge clarifies that its 220,000 MT production
cuts will be in refined copper, not ore. Broker who suspected cuts referred to
contained copper ore says it's signs of consumption mkt is waiting for. "It
doesn't have to be fantastic consumption, but it has to be more than we have
now." Expects no recovery until mid-2002. Comex Dec dn 0.75c at 62.25c/lb.
(DGB)
1401 GMT (Dow Jones) Comex Dec copper dn 0.80c at 62.20c/lb on more fund
selling on back of failure Tue to hold rally from Phelps Dodge production cuts,
says trader. Tried to touch lows at 62.05c but couldn't push through. Sees
next support at 61.70c with strong sell-stops around there. No buying interest
below 63.55c and no bargain-hunting at bottom. (DGB)
1141 GMT (Dow Jones) LME 3-mo copper pulls lower in second ring but finding
good support at $1,380/ton as mkt waits for signals of further production cuts,
says dealer. "Let's hope Phelps have opened the flood gates or we could be
looking at new lows pretty soon." (DWE)
1114 GMT (Dow Jones) LME 3-mo copper looks set to head back to $1,360's
before long while ali will likely fall back to support at $1,285/ton, says
Barclays Capital. Mkt will focus on release of US Beige Book for signs of
economic health. (DWE)
1112 GMT (Dow Jones) Although Grupo Mexico have been cited as next likely
candidate for copper production cuts," there is a body of opinion that expects
the next cuts to come from Kennecott in the US and other small producers," says
GNI. (DWE)
1109 GMT (Dow Jones) Most negative factor for LME copper mkt regarding Phelps
Dodge production cut announcement Tue is that cuts well not be implemented
until middle of Jan which means current surplus will remain until end of year,
adding further to stocks, says GNI. (DWE)
0947 GMT (Dow Jones) Spot palladium likely drift lower in near to medium
term, trade in range from $275-$350/oz, trader says. At $320/oz. (JZB)
0936 GMT (Dow Jones) LME 3-mo copper expected to meet strong selling pressure
on any rally over $1,390/ton, says IFX. Ali is has support at $1,285, failure
to break $1,300 could see this level tested. (DWE)
0936 GMT (Dow Jones) Activity expected to be muted on LME base metal mkt as
participants travel back to office in wake of LME dinner in London last night.
Talk revolved around copper production cuts with most dealers, analysts
agreeing that if mkt is to recover further cuts will be needed, economic health
will need to improve significantly. (DWE)
0922 GMT (Dow Jones) Spot platinum likely to rally back to $440-450/oz short
term but metal likely to eventually decline through lows to $402/oz, JP Morgan
says. At $421.50/oz. (JZB)
0916 GMT (Dow Jones) LME 3-mo copper falls in wake of 4,900 ton stock build,
continuing retracement after sharp rally Tue, says dealer. Phelps Dodge
production cut of 220,000 tons has provided underlying support for mkt but if
sustained gains are to emerge further cuts must be forthcoming soon. Mkt
speculating that Grupo Mexico may announce cut at meeting Fri with some
suggesting that Phelps, Grupo Mexico may have planned parallel move. (DWE)
0913 GMT (Dow Jones) Spot gold likely to rally back to $285/oz in short
term, with trendline support at $272/oz likely to limit downside, JP Morgan
says. At $276.25/oz. (JZB)
0910 GMT (Dow Jones) Longer term spot silver is likely to target $3.80/oz,
then $3.60/oz says JP Morgan. In the short term silver seen holding $4.15/oz,
expected to advance back to $4.35-45/oz in coming weeks. At $4.25/oz. (JZB)
0801 GMT (Dow Jones) LME copper warehouse stocks rise by 4,900 tons on the
day to 741,200 tons, while LME ali warehouse stocks fall by 4,250 tons on the
day to 711,025 tons. (IWS)
0833 GMT (Dow Jones) Spot gold appears to be technically oversold at current
levels and a bounce above $280/oz is likely unless the dollar continues to make
gains against other major currencies, says Standard Bank. Similarly silver is
also seen oversold and due a bounce, but is likely to be capped at $4.35/oz.
Signs of physical demand continue to halt recent declines in platinum and
palladium although trading remains thin and glued to the London fixings,
Standard Bank added. (IWS)
0705 GMT (Dow Jones) LME 3-mo lead seen supported by tightening of the
forward spreads on an expectation of a shortfall in physical metal in late 01
early 02. Resistance is at $490/ton, then $500, says Standard Bank. At $484.
(IWS)
0704 GMT (Dow Jones) LME 3-mo nickel remains capped by downtrend resistance
at $4,620/ton and further probes toward $4,500 may be seen, says Standard Bank.
At $4,575. (IWS)
0703 GMT (Dow Jones) LME 3-mo ali has now regained downtrend support and the
upside toward $1,315-$1,320/ton may now be examined, says Standard Bank. At
$1,296. (IWS)
0702 GMT (Dow Jones) LME 3-mo copper is now expected to establish a base
around recent lows, probe the upside toward $1,420/ton, says Standard Bank. At
$1,386. (IWS)
DJ info: N/CMD,N/DJCS,N/DJWI,N/ALMT,N/DJMT,N/PCS,N/SVR,N/DJFS
FSN49722 CMO COMMENTS METALS
2001-10-24 16:38:29 UTC |
