Since this thread is all about trying to determine the future direction of things, I want to start by saying that the answer to the next poll question which you're about to pose is "down."
Now, I'm trying to step back and see a bigger count on the Naz. Here's a simple chart, as it's the best I can do, cuz I'm pathetic: stockcharts.com[m,a]eaclyymy[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]
Is my following count possible/probable/laughable
From the bottom, we're tracing out an ABC wave 4. The huge move up was the A, obviously. We're currently in the B which is, in turn, doing an abc of it's own (and I'd put us in the b which means we could even see a marginal new high for this move tomorrow, but then should start a C down, the brother leg to that nasty day last week). The thing is, after that, we'd still need a C leg up, and if it's in any way equivalent to that A leg, well. . . gosh. . . I just don't see how the Naz goes that high. Anyway, after that, we'd get the wave 5 down that so many are mumbling about, and that will finish off this leg of the bear.
What surprises me about this count, if accurate, is that we'd still have more up to go, and I just don't quite know what prompts that. Then again, since the market's not going down on bad news right now, I don't know what prompts the next wave down, either. Anyway, I'd appreciate comments on this count, as I know it's similar to others that have been posed here (but not today or so, and I'm doing my part to get us back on the bigger timeframes, darn it).
the freep |
