Ray, re ENE
Stock is up today but I've seen higher dead cat bounces--the bounce up could simply be a great oppo to short.
The poster makes an excellent point and it's hard to quibble with him on any of it. I remember when Drexel Burnham disappeared, it was over in a flash, so his timing scenario on ENE might be right. In any event, since I own zero ENE, the question becomes how much of a gambler am I? I think the downside is still much more (likelihood of going to zero) than a significant upside (doubling to 32), so the risk/reward isn't there.
What could save ENE? Well, he could be wrong about the counterparty issue. I don't know how these trades are made and what ability the counterparty has to simply call in the out of the money trades. Perhaps it's in the contract that, should ENE's bond rating drop below a certain level, etc. Maybe someone here has that knowledge. I'm sure he's right about some of the trades existing within a very small group of folks.
Also, there was a medium effort to save Drexel Burnham, and a much bigger effort (successful, in a way) to save LTCM. How much effort (governmental) would be made to keep ENE in business? Again, I don't know. They made a lot of enemies along the way, and I don't see their organization as one (like Chrysler or huge banks) that our economy depends on, and I don't see their bankruptcy as something which would weaken the financial system, so they probably get a thumbs down on that.
Interesting stock to put on the watchlist, though.
Kb |
