"Do you really think that it is "likely" that AMD will sell through IBM once again (assuming they return to retail, which is doubtful)?"
Yes. In the retail market, AMD is the best deal, with good price/performance (especially if you include the whole platform), and good market acceptance. And yes, it is doubtful that IBM will return to retail in North America anytime soon.
"Do you think it's "likely" that AMD will turn out a profitable 4th quarter?"
I think the odds are pretty good for a small loss at worse, and a small profit at best. The P4 shortage helps, as does the rebound in flash demand. Neither is huge, but there it is.
"Do you think it's "likely" that AMD will defy expectations, or that they will once again gain market share from Intel?"
I think that is a given. The shortage in Q4 helps, and the pushback on Northwood brings it out about the same time (within weeks) that Tbred is due. Tbred should have a significant cost advantage, and Northwood won't have a performance advantage. In a shakey market, a price advantage helps a lot.
"What makes it so "likely"?"
Well, all we have to go on is history, and recent history favors AMD right now. Q3 was bad for AMD because they didn't keep up, performance-wise, for what ever reason. That has changed. |
