The problem with the Bush Sr. scenario is that the war had been over well before the election, and the stunning success of the war left many feeling as if Bush were more powerful than he was about the economy. Thus, they expected us to "whip the recession" the way we had whipped the Iraqis, and figured he was out of touch if that didn't happen. Additionally, Clinton ran around like Chicken Little, yelling "The sky is falling", after years of Democrats asserting that there would be a day of reckoning for Reagonomics, and so that got some traction. Finally, Ross took away mainly Republican votes.
In this case, unemployment is still low, the recession is likely to be shallow, and the Dow is already at about 9500. We may stall, but not as low as you seem to think. Even were things to worsen, it would be blamed on the uncertainty of the national crisis. No one is likely to bail in '02, and '04 is too far away to say what the variables will be.
As for angry white backlash, well, I am not sure what you are talking about. Even in '92, Bush Sr. got a majority of the white vote. What happened was the support of Southern Evangelicals softened, from around 95% to around 75% (all that Bible thumping did Clinton some good), and that did the trick. If he had held that vote at previous levels in a couple of Southern states, he would have won. |
