re: AMAT LT, and "this whole terrorist thing points to technology":
I am usually sceptical of the idea that social/political problems can be solved by technology. There are just too many counterexamples. But, today, I think the (partial) solution is the widespread use of new technology, largely in communications, data acquisition, and data processing/storage, to control people's behavior. A dangerous solution, to be sure; it makes totalitarian societies easier to create and perpetuate. But, we have no choice. The world is like a fragile spacecraft, with a crew that doesn't get along very well, no one in charge, and every crewperson holding a grenade in his hand. Since we'll never be able to confiscate all the grenades, we must watch closely to see who is willing and ready to pull the pin....... and then act quickly.
No governments are going to be able to openly support terrorism, because the Global Hegemon has now decided it is in his urgent self-interest to end all such governments. Notice, that even North Korea and Libya have asked to join the War On Terrorism (on our side, that is). The hard part will be making actions match words. Notice, that only the Brits and their settler-colonies have yet sent soldiers into battle. Blood is thicker..........
John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946):
"In our present confusion of aims is there enough clear-sighted public spirit left to preserve the balanced and complicated organization by which we live? Communism is discredited by events; socialism, in its old-fashioned interpretation, no longer interests the world; capitalism has lost its self-confidence. Unless men are united by a common aim or moved by objective principles, each one’s hand will be against the rest and the unregulated pursuit of individual advantage may soon destroy the whole. There has been no common purpose lately between nations or between classes, except for war…"
Message 16563707
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Since it's IPO, anytime an investor has bought AMAT when it is at least 50% off it's previous highs, and held for at least 2 years, he has had a handsome return. Hold longer, and the returns get steadily handsomer. I am very uncertain of my predictions for the day, week, and month (doesn't stop me from talking on and on about it). But, on a time-line measured in years, I'm very bullish, and very confident. Caveat: there are only a tiny handful of companies of AMAT's quality, balance sheet, and track record. |
