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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: sun-tzu who wrote (131335)10/26/2001 2:27:41 PM
From: yard_man  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
up/down??

I wouldn't -- I also don't think there is money to be made outside of the futures on NG.

I asked my in-house expert about why prices had jumped. He mentioned a couple of things --

1) Wx forecast -- folks had been predicting warmer than usual winter -- now the forecast is more for normal wx

2) Not so much the absolute storage level, but recent rate of change

He said -- keep in mind on a cold day, it's unusual for more than 10% of the requirements to come out of storage -- I should know more about this than I do given my job -- but I didn't realize it was that small of an amount -- storage overall amounts ~10% of annual requirements, too. If someone had asked me to guess, I'd have said 25 - 30.

Our fuels guy expects it to drop back -- if you are going to trade it, why not do it directly with the futures??
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