Jubak is pretty OK, but what is the sense of projecting the future assuming that this year would be
a normal one, just like if 2000 would have been a normal one??
Ref return on equity, efficiency of capital, when was it that Ollila declared that it would be the major
goal, two years ago??
inthe july article also some strange things:
moneycentral.msn.com
-The catch
What isn’t immediately clear from the guidance out of Nokia and Motorola is that projections for a
fourth-quarter wireless recovery hinge on an industrywide rollout of 3G wireless infrastructure,
applications and handsets to re-ignite consumer demand.
3G Infra, OK, but where did he connect 3G applications and 3G handsets to 4Q-01?? (GPRS??)
-If 3G phones with hot new services -- stock trading on your Nokia, instant messaging on your
Motorola, restaurant reviews and reservations on your Samsung -- hit the market as scheduled in
the last half of 2001, they’re likely to end the replacement handset problem.
Strange sentences, 3G in combination with old WAP trading, even old SMS??
Although he probably looks at this only from the US market point of view, it still
doesn't make sense to connect that to 3G?? But maybe he didn't see the
introduction of GPRS at that time?? (assumes these services would have to
wait for WCDMA??)
A good point he starts with is the "change of generation", but he does not really
go through, follow up the factors, who this regular thng can be bridged,etc.
Additionaly he was obviously not aware of the P-channel issue in july.
-This is typically what happens when a technology industry ballyhoos a coming transition to the
next great thing. Customers decide to wait for the new and better stuff that they’ve heard so much
about and to stick with what they already own just a little longer. In other words, future sales
cannibalize to one degree or another current sales. And in retrospect that seems to be pretty much
what was behind the drop in replacement handset sales in the fourth quarter of 2000.
and the new article
--(Optimists are also looking for the same kind of boost, but of a lesser magnitude,
from the 2.5-generation equipment that will bridge the transition from current gear to true 3G
networks.)
Ilmarinen
The common denominator seem to be missing the meaning, importance of GPRS??
(and even that takes juggling two major dimensions, packets and higher speed) |
