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Biotech / Medical : Elan Corporation, plc (ELN)
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To: William Partmann who wrote (1294)10/28/2001 12:54:05 AM
From: Lance Bredvold  Read Replies (1) of 10345
 
Well, Bill, I've looked at all of those charts and was reassured in my expectation there would be no pattern evident to me. Well, maybe a few more declines into the report than I would have expected--almost like everyone is afraid there is going to be some bad news. And I suppose that is reasonable. Most often it seemed to me that the price recovered or went to new highs in the weeks following the earnings report although you did not include the period 11+ quarters ago which was the culmination of several downward quarters. Hard to remember now what created such uncertainty back in 98/99 but it is when I began buying. I do recall stories about cooked books at that time also, and I guess JNJ dropped significantly sometime in there also as I managed to get some back which I had sold a couple years earlier thinking it had gone so high it could not possibly sustain itself. I got to buy JNJ at $74 and meant to have an order in at $67 but was travelling that day. Screw up.

I am gradually developing more of an understanding of pharmaceuticals and biotech companies and have several of the biotech boards bookmarked. Bought some Sepracor at $26 when Peter Suzman and several others all said it was their favorite bet, but frankly I know so little about it that I could only buy a starter position.

The graphs are worth doing and thank you, but I rarely try to buy or sell around earnings time. I am hopeful of a spike when I can get some more calls sold as Elan has become too large a position for my portfolio size and I could stand to lose some of it.

Thanks for keeping the thread alive. Lance
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