Waiting for the big Kahuna Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: William H Huebl who wrote (55969)	10/28/2001 4:49:47 PM
From: Mark Adams	Read Replies (1) of 94695

We were headed for an April 4 retest 9/10, when an outlier hit. So it made sense to me that there would be an attraction back to that level (roughly 9100 on the dow, 1600 on the comp). We've exceeded those numbers now. If we threw out the outlier, did we see a successful retest? Or just a bounce back from oversold including the panic selling? Despite widespread calls for retests of the panic lows (8000 on the dow breached intraday!) I don't see a retest of the panic lows going forward. I'm also not expecting the bull run to continue indefinitely. It appears some consolidation is taking place, with people looking to get comfortable with respect to which stocks they hold (minor rotations). Pending greater visibility, of course. Going forward, we have greater uncertainty (and risk premium) built in, along with some questionable stimulus about to be added to that already in the pipeline. I say a new range short term- 9000-9600 on the dow, 1575-1750 on the comp. Those numbers have no TA behind them, just a gut feel from looking at the charts. BWDIK?

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