Yeah, but hindsight is sooooo good, a great way to keep making yourself feel like crap about your actions @;-)
I know that we didn't want to create more margin risk, especially with all the external uncertainties of a world in turmoil and on the brink of WWIII. But, sure could have made a bundle!!! Of course at 70% we did make a bundle!
Re INCY: I don't see what has changed. INCY has always had a lot of difficulty articulating their strategy. Plus, they are pretty much the least PR Saavy company in the sector - their customers are the big pharmas, and to a lesser extent the biotechs, and they have never seemed to feel that they need to give the general stock buying public much of a clue about what they are up to. I still see them as a primo long term play, and am not that concerned about the short term perturbations (not that I don't peek every day). Given their low market cap, big cash position, low enterprise value, revenue stream based on long term deals, never having lost one of their dbase customers, and of course my long term bias and history - I really want to continue holding them. I don't see much downside risk, and still see a nice upside potential.
Actually, what finally has come out is that they are starting to look at what they are doing, where the cash comes from and goes to, what the competition is doing, etc... Seems like more actual business analysis than they have done in years, or ever. The end result is that they are going back to their core competency, in an area where they can make some money and not trying to be everything to everybody in areas where there is no money to be made, only lost. In other words, I think they are starting to FOCUS. I think they were also caught up in the Internet bubble mentality, of as long as I build a business with customers, I don't need to make money hype, a model which has now gone by the wayside. I like the current biochip model - let the other big boys compete with AFFX, and just supply the big boys raw materials (ie. DNA) and collect a fee, while staying out of the manufacturing and marketing business.
Does that make me happy about squandering the cash they have, no, but that is the past, I want to keep looking ahead. They are educable, I think they are learning their lessons.
Enough of a rant for now, time to deliver children to school...
Bye for now.
Rman |
