Bill, Re: "If flash stays down and the hammer is broken AMD is done. If flash comes back and makes some money then AMD will have more time, and may be able to make the hammer work perfectly. If, however the hammer works and few adopt the ia64 then AMD might just kick ass for while. If flash also comes back, .....look out Intel. So it all depends on the hammer."
From what you say, it sounds like it's not only Hammer, but also AMD's flash division, and also future screw-ups on Intel's part before AMD can be successful.
What's wrong with AMD's flash business, anyway? They reported a huge decrease in revenue from that, yet Intel was up from last quarter. Did AMD lose a lot of their flash market share (Intel seems to think so, according to the CC)?
But what about Intel products? What if Northwood gets an appreciable increase in performance, as well as much better frequencies? What if the i845 with DDR ends up performing as good as RDRAM? What if Intel is successful with Hyperthreaded Xeons? What if McKinley ends up impressing the industry and redeeming the Itanium? What if the networking and communications markets recover, and that gives Intel a huge boost in their "other" businesses?
It sounds like there are a lot of "ifs", which translates to a lot of risk when it comes to buying AMD stock. I'll not ignore the possibility of Hammer being very successful for AMD, but neither will I ignore the possibility that Intel will execute better as well.
You should really consider both sides of the coin as well.
wanna_bmw |
