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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: Lucretius who started this subject10/29/2001 7:12:19 PM
From: sun-tzu  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
Swenlin...10/29/01 (a good one)

<For the third time this year I am closing a BUY Signal almost immediately after opening it. In the two prior cases, as in the most recent, I had reasonably good reasons for opening the signal, but the market failed to follow through in the manner I had expected, so I moved back to NEUTRAL, as I am doing now. I admit that I am baffled by how the market ignored really bad news last week and pushed higher, and the selloff today with no significant change in the news adds to the confusion.

When I opened the BUY Signal on Thursday, I expected a breakout on Friday followed by a continued rise this week. We did get a small breakout on Friday, but today's sharp reversal is completely the opposite of expectations, and the best course is to admit I was wrong and get out. In the two other times I did that this year I was quite glad I didn't try to hang around and hope that the market to come through for me -- significant declines soon followed.

The technical picture, which I said in the Weekly Commentary had plenty of things to not like about it, turned much more negative today with the majority of ST and IT indicators generating sell signals. We're still in the trading range, so more whipsaw is possible. But I am more worried about a continued decline -- the Nasdaq broke its short-term rising trend line today, and today was the worst down day of the last three weeks.>

--Carl Swenlin
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