Compaq Message Board - Msg: 16584266

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Technology Stocks : Compaq

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To: MeDroogies who wrote (93524)	10/31/2001 1:20:29 AM
From: Night Writer	Read Replies (1) of 97611

The model knows the economic impact based on numbers but does not have the human emotion associated with war. While this may be a strength on one level, it may also be a weakness on another level. The computer programing may not be detail enough to determine market reactions to specific war related events. For example, would it pick a company making meat purification equipment that the post office is now purchasing to kill anthrax. Would it buy a security company. How does it evaluate the military war material needs. Every war is different and the needs are different. The kicker is the needs are gone after the war is over. History has shown us that time and time again. So how does the model react to that? That is an interesting econometric programing problem. Also an excellent reason a human makes the final decision on information generated by the program. On the other hand, not programing various war data into an econometric model could be a major weakness. My most basic economic courses contrasted economic differences during war and peace. Maybe current economic courses dropped that aspect of the topic. NW

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