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Non-Tech : Amati investors

AMTX 1.455

-3.0%

11:48 AM EST

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To: j rector who wrote (20420)	6/25/1997 8:46:00 PM
From: mike angelo	of 31386

(Deployment #'s) j, the 1998 deployment figures that even the CEOs of the xDSL companies talk about speak for themselves. The technology and everything associated with it will be difficult to deploy in any kind of timely fashion. What I dread is that the best & brightest may be put on a rollout for a particular city while the hype is going, then ADSL will not be heard for a long,long time as the rest of a territory gears up for deployment. The optimists here listen to certain xDSL analysts, box vendor marketing types, or even certain telco people and think WOW, the numbers will come pouring in once ADSL starts to get deployed. Uh Uh, no way. For a dose of reality, visit your local telco and talk to an outside plant engineer on what is involved. Assuming you can find one who has a clue what ADSL equipment does. I sometimes think nobody has a clue. Do you know what it means to upgrade every CO and neighborhood in a city for deployment? Anyone who does can not possibly believe 1997 or 1st half 1998 can be of any significance. So here we sit with our investments treading water. How's this for a strategy: CopperGold comes out and AMTX bumps up a few points. Or a contract is finally announced and the stock turns up. Get out as fast as possible at that point in time for maybe super long term options, while the reality hits home and no numbers get deployed. Hype and announcements go so far. Reality is 100K - 500k modems in the U.S. for all of 1998 being deployed. It will be a very long year. Mike

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