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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)

INTC 36.33

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12:45 PM EST

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To: Dan3 who wrote (146481)	10/31/2001 3:33:12 PM
From: fingolfen	Read Replies (2) of 186894

Dan, yet again you amaze me with your ability to take a bad assumption heap more bad assumptions on top of it... and then come to ridiculous conclusions to spin a scenario laughably out of touch with reality... Intel's projection for the savings from moving to .13 next year will be 5%. I found that surprising (I think we all were expecting more). That 25% number you quoted was for moving to 300mm wafers in 2003. I wasn't... but then again, any new manufacturing process is expensive in it's first year or two. Costs don't really start coming down until the 2nd or 3rd year. Cost per wafer on 0.18 micron is undoubtedly much less than it was in 1999. AMD will be able to supply 50 million processors next year with a single FAB that is small by Intel standards. If I've read correctly, indicated that Dresden was already at 5K WS/Week and moving to 7K WS/Week. Granted Intel has a few "megafabs" with over 10K WS/Week capacity, but Intel also has many smaller fabs. F20 I don't think ever even ran 5K WS/Week in the 0.18 micron days simply because development was eating up most of the wafer starts. D2 is always low volume (lower than dresden). F17 isn't a huge facility either. To assume a 10K WS/Week start level for all Intel fabs is just plain wrong. Therefore all of your analysis and conclusions from that point forward fall to the level of absurdity...

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