Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 322.62

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3:59 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (54977)	11/1/2001 1:34:19 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (3) of 70976

Thanks for the charts. Both chip sales and semi-equip orders are now in the general range where they bottomed in 1996 and 1998. I expect no huge further drop in either, no matter how long or deep this recession is. The rate of decline in chip sales is slowing, it looks like a curve approaching an asymptote at about $9B. Semiequip orders are clearly not following the 1996 and 1998 pattern. No V-bottom. It's a U, or an L. Since the 1996 and 1998 patterns aren't being followed, perhaps we need to look at the pattern during the last recession (1990), or 1985. Anyone know where that data could be found?

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