Cheryl:
My operating assumption is that this 'settlement' is simply a face-saving cover story for the DOJ and has no essential significance. It means Microsoft is 100% free to go back to its organized-crime style of business as usual, and possibly even to ratchet it up. Notwithstanding a couple of jokey provisions that allow Dell and Compaq to put an icon for some MP3 player on a Windows desktop, etc. Microsoft has unconditionally, completely won.
They will now be free to use their coercive monopoly power on the desktop against all hardware and software makers with the possible exception of IBM (and Sun) to carry out their long-range strategic plan: start by owning the Internet infrastructure, from desktop/settop/game console/PDA O/S, to Itanium servers running Windows 64, to web services and licensing-cryptography for content delivery. Then, as they near that goal, start to compete with their larger captive content delivery "partners", just as they did with larger software ISV's, and put them out of business.
In particular, they will be able to coercively promote C#, .NET, and whatever other internet scheme they come up with, i.e. to leverage their current monopoly into internet services, which competes directly with Sun. (If you don't believe it, look at the XP Passport pitch, a nefarious but well-designed piece of anti-trust violation that no government authority will now even remark on.) I have no more faith that Sun can execute on the latest web services consortium it put together than they could execute on any of the other consortia over the last 15 years, especially with zero ongoing Federal scrutiny of Microsoft (which is what I believe we will have going forward).
If Itanium becomes real, which it now looks like it will, M$FT will own 80% of the OS on it and Linux 20% (mostly via IBM), Sun 0%. If we then extrapolate Sun's rate of execution and progress on processor development over the last 3-4 years vs. Intel's, Sun is no longer a hardware player by, say, 2005. Itanium machines will slide down a cost/performance curve that will marginalize Sun solutions, with the great majority of the benefit going to Microsoft and the rest to IBM. Oracle will have to play ball very soon. UltraSparc V? Maybe in the 22nd century.
As I said in an earlier post, IMHO there was danger of Linux on Itanium eventually marginalizing Sun even if Microsoft had been broken up. With Microsoft given a free pass to do as it wishes, the marginalization threat is multiplied by some large factor.
I actually don't see exactly where Sun goes from here.
As Charles would say, definitely JMHO and not intended as investment advice.
--QS |
