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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly?
MSFT 454.66-1.1%3:59 PM EST

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To: Timetobuy who wrote (62474)11/1/2001 4:30:17 PM
From: David Howe  Read Replies (2) of 74651
 
<< I bet those people will just make due with what they have. >.

Since I seem to have a big mouth today, let me take a crack at this one. There are millions of pirated copies of Windows and Office. XP makes it much more difficult to do this because you have to initiate the software via the internet or a phone. Here's my wild guess on what happens in the next 3 years to these people that are running pirated software.

5% switch to another OS (ie. Linux) because they are pissed at MSFT for making them pay for an OS.

30% do nothing (for 3 years. After that, I'll bet they are forced to upgrade somehow).

5% learn how to crack the initialization code and again get a free copy.

60% purchase a legal copy of Windows and/or Office.

Sounds like a Net Gain for MSFT in terms of sales. Sure, they lose some customers, but If I'm anywhere close to correct, they gain a lot more than they lose.

IMO,
Dave

PS. Charles, Pirating is rampant, even in the US. There's an unbelievable amount of software in use that wasn't paid for.
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