NazComp bullish reversal? chart doesnt look it to me
I see a negative trend
Moving Averages have straightened out, now bunched
if QQQ rises above trend barrier at 36-37 toward 40,
then yes a potential bull reversal
what I see is a Cup & Handle pattern
but the cup is so tilted, that it might easily spill its contents
with valuations so skyhigh, and future quarters so uncertain,
and Leading Econ Indicators mostly negative
(with only two positives being under FedReserve control),
I would say that Microsoft or No, the Naz is not reversing
it is likely reflexing off a deep oversold in midSept
and looking really shaky where it rests now
the last favorable court news for Microshaft gave them and Naz a rally in midsummer
but it faded extremely fast
the new XP Windows shipped recently
I read about a $400m marketing budget for it
with PC sector in the shitter, and first negative year for PC's in a decade, it seems to me that The Evil Geek cannot pull up the tech economy by himself
besides, the more I read about business data, the more I learn that inventory/sales ratio is worsening by the month in the tech sector, IT in particular
we have more pain and more layoffs and more bad numbers coming
not better
Naz is trying hard to muster a sustained rally
but it is missing ANY verification with current or leading data
hope and sales pitch is all I see
but I do respect the venerable John Murphy
my guess is that both NazComp and MSFT will give up the ghost soon
what does MSFT offer now?
a PE of 50 and growth of 10-15%
just another stock worth $40-45, at best
their golden years are behind them
their hegemony is a chapter already written
then you have the Asian Epitaph
Taiwan approaching depression
Korea in deep recession
PacRim reeling
and Japan about to hit the toilet flush crank
we have unison worldwide recession deepening
just what the hell will offer Microsoft and Techs added momentum fuel?
security devices? visual databases? bomb sniffers?
$300 per taxpayer? promise of $1000 in four years?
watch the bankruptcies next
that is the leading indicator for my eyes
debt is coming due in a few months with nothing but hot air to pay the bills
/ jim |
