A.H., the productivity revenue figures caused me to consider Q3's possibilities.
Here's a possible scenario:
Assumptions:
1. Suite 8 sales booked for May were $37 M. At the same pace, Jun, Jul, & Aug = $111 M.
2. Suite 8 Professional version to ship in August. Conservative guestimate is $10 M.
3. Specialty Suite effectiveness is still unknown, so just a conservative guess of $5 M.
4. Residual Suite 7 revenue.
5. Corporate Licensing - Expect an increase due to Suite 8. Maybe total of $23 M.
6. Office for JAVA - Who knows for sure?
7. Graphics revenue assumption is same as Q2.
8. Gross Margin is held steady as percentage of revenue.
9. Administrative Expenses hold steady by Q2 dollar cost. (See assumption 9)
9. Advertising expense to increase by 10 million. Total expenses = Q2 plus $10 M.
10. Tax estimate of 40%.
11. Q2 shown without the write-down of $113,674,000. Tax rate of 40% for comparison.
Corel Corporation
Projected Income Statement
Q3 1997 - (000s)
Sales - Productivity Q2 % Q3 %
WP Suite 8 37,000 36.8% 111,000 62.2%
WP Suite 8 Pro 0 0.0% 10,000 5.6%
Specialty Suites 0 0.0% 5,000 2.8%
WP Suite 7 5,000 5.0% 1,000 0.6%
Corporate Licensing 17,000 16.9% 23,000 12.9%
Office for Java 13,000 12.9% 0 0.0%
Total Productivity Sales 72,000 71.7% 150,000 84.1%
Sales - Graphics Q2 % Q3 %
Draw, Ventura, etc. 28,413 28.3% 28,413 15.9%
Total Sales 100,413 100.0% 178,413 100.0%
Cost of Sales 19,911 19.8% 35,326 19.8%
Gross Margin 80,502 80.2% 143,087 80.2%
Expenses 73,002 72.7% 83,002 46.5%
Income from operations 7,500 7.5% 60,085 33.7%
Taxes 3,000 3.0% 24,034 13.5%
Net Income 4,500 4.5% 36,051 20.2%
EPS Basic (60,082,000) ~ 0.07 0.60
EPS Fully Diluted (70,844,000) ~ 0.06 0.51
Sound far fetched? How about other ideas?
Up, Up, & Away! (It could happen!)
Scott |
