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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity

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To: Gottfried who wrote (10163)	11/1/2001 9:40:26 PM
From: que seria	Read Replies (1) of 23153

gottfried: I should be guided by your expertise with chips, but no, I shorted XLNX today near the close. I see a bear market rally near its top, and short bets increasingly worth making (using an early mental stop) from now to Friday's Naz 1793 high. I'm holding too many tech longs not to hedge my bets with ST shorts. Changing your SOX chart to a monthly, and taking my view that all market rallies now are presumptively bear market rallies until proven otherwise, I see about 50% downside to my usual Oct '98 reference point. stockcharts.com[w,a]maclyymy[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lf!Lc20] Historical odds favor this recession being within the norm, and we longs all surfing on profits next Spring! I'm just not trading on those historic odds because I fear the bear will be different (worse than average) this time. Even if we have seen the bottom, I don't think we get out of this year without some retrace on the SOX.

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