Zeev's Turnips - No Politics Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics

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To: scott_jiminez who wrote (2671)	11/2/2001 8:16:55 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (3) of 99280

Scott, are you forecasting KLIC at $40 by March 2002? As for the analysis I presented, it is, as usual, just a 60% probability. As for the risk, it is limited to exactly $1.70 or 10% (actually only 8% since the stock was trading at 17.30 when I suggested that as a short). As for the expected decline it is to the range of $12.5 to $14.5 not outside the realm of the November/December 2000 decline from $21.09 (11/17) to $15.75 (12/15). Actually, your example strengthen my argument (you would have seen that if you quoted the volume figures), since on 11/17 we indeed had a huge volume spike (to 2.5 MM shares) that was almost 4 to 5 times the volume KLIC usually traded during that period (around .5 MM shares) signaling the end of that first move up and coincided with the then "peak price". (check for "Turnips corollary" relative to price and volume cited on this thread during this week). Zeev

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