[Point Counter-point]
<<< What I dread is that the best & brightest may be put on a rollout for a particular city while the hype is going, then ADSL will not be
heard for a long,long time as the rest of a territory gears up for deployment. The optimists here listen to certain xDSL analysts, box vendor marketing types, or even certain telco people and think WOW, the numbers will come pouring in once ADSL starts to get deployed. Uh Uh, no way.>>>
Let's take real-life examples: BCTel (British Columbia Telecom) -- is ready to annc. a September rollout for Vancouver, with Vancouver Island next and the inland areas around Kamloops to follow. Hong Kong Telecom has said they'll begin rolling out in October with ramp-up in 1998. Siemens has ordered 100K modems, primarily for two large European carriers, to begin delivery as soon as the chips are available. BT is set to announce their vendor(s) and while their numbers won't be as aggressive at the outset as they thought a year ago, their over-all projections are as strong. (Second-hand info from analyst; haven't seen the numbers myself.) When GTE announces their plans we'll know a lot more. I think in place of blanket statements that indicate ADSL won't be deployed for a long time, let's seek out as many specific numbers as we can and leave the hyperbole to the Salim's of the world.
<<<For a dose of reality, visit your local telco and talk to an outside plant engineer on what is involved. Assuming you can find one who has a clue what ADSL equipment does. I sometimes think nobody has a clue. Do you know what it means to upgrade every CO and neighborhood in a city for deployment? Anyone who does can not possibly believe 1997 or 1st half 1998 can be of any significance. So here we sit with our investments treading water.>>>
I don't know how much reality can be had by talking to someone who doesn't know anything about ADSL. How about talking to someone who's been testing the equipment from every angle for over a year, like GTE? They've run studies on everything from line conditioning to installing at the customer premise. The administrative director of the Redmond trials told me they had a big meeting for all the field guys to air their grieviances and thinking they'd be swamped with complaints, they sent out for pizzas for everyone. The meeting came and went and they found out the engineers were elated at how easy installation was compared to ISDN. One guy said, "But, hey, we'll take the pizza any time!"
<<< Do you know what it means to upgrade every CO and neighborhood in a city for deployment? Anyone who does can not possibly believe 1997 or 1st half 1998 can be of any significance. So here we sit with our investments treading water.>>>
Of course the upgrades aren't going to happen over night. Yet they've already begun. Look at the quarterly reports from the networkers. Find out how many are ordering switches and routers capable of handling high-speed modems. Read what Hambrecht & Quist's last Telecom Equipment report says:
"We are expecting that the remainder of 1997 will continue to be very strong for the companies within the H&Q Equipment Universe. We believe that the successful investment themes for the rest of 1997 will be similar to the main money-making trends that we experienced throughout 1996 -- 1) Continued expansion of bandwidth, 2) Migration from analog to digital and from low speed digital to high speed digital, 3) Continued Internet access and backbone build-out, and 4) Migration toward public data services (such as frame relay and ATM) for corporate communications.>>>
The time to invest isn't when the build-out has taken place, it's when the build-out is in its earliest stages and the growth curves are sharpest. I want to be in Amati when the roll-out goes from 1K modems a month to 30 or 40K a few months later. Now, that's growth you can live with --- and based on orders I know about, I firmly believe it could happen.
Don't take my word for it. Do your own numbers. And if you think your investment is treading water, take it somewhere else.
If you stay in, join the debate with your best research skills. We need all the facts and figures we can find.
Cheers!
Pat |
