Tentatively, what I'm thinking of doing is incrementally unloading my 2003 LEAPs, whenever the stock gets 40% over its 50DMA, and adding 2004s (same $ amount) whenever we hit that average. Before I do that, I'd like to see the stock come down to that moving average, and bounce, one more time, to reassure me that the trend is now up.
IMO, current earnings are meaningless. What investors are waiting for, to pile into the stock, is definite signs of a trough in sales and margins. That would indicate we are at the inflection point of business conditions (for NTAP, not necessarily for storage or tech in general). The stock of a tech company that is seeing stable sales and margins, in today's macro environment, is going to attract money looking for a Safe Haven. That's why MSFT and IBM have held up so well.
Also, investors never learn. In spite of the fact that momentum investors, who have repeatedly bought the bear rallies since early 2000, have lost money, they will do it again. Never underestimate the power of a herd of hot momo money piling into a stock. |
