Dan, this is what I would go by, re-posted earlier:
Dow Jones News Service ~ June 18, 1997 ~ 12:05 pm EST
CHARLOTTE (Dow Jones)--Alydaar Software Corp. (ALYD) expects to report a loss of $2 million to $3 million in the first quarter ended March 31 compared with a loss of $270,000 a year earlier.
Hollis Scott, chief financial officer, said the company expects to break even in the second quarter and be profitable by the third quarter.
The company was a non-reporting development stage company in the year-ago period. Scott said the company recorded a full-year loss of $5.1 million in 1996, on revenues of $38,000.
Scott said the company filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission to become a reporting company and expects it to be effective in two to three weeks. It currently trades on the over-the-counter bulletin board.
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All else is speculation. I'm sure at this stage of newly minted contracts, Alydaar is not going to be able to fairly estimate future revenues, much less profits. IMO it's futile to estimate if EPS is going to be .50, 1.00 or 3.00. No one can say for sure. For instance, it's not in the bag that they will go on to do all of MacDonnell Douglas' conversion work. Of course it is expected and hoped that the pilot tests go well, as they did for Air Lingus; nevertheless, no one can make promises.
I did hear a presentation/Q&A session by Mr. Gruder and another officer of the Corporation on the MSN Financial Network. This interview was/is available to be listened via Real Audio on the MSN Financial Network. I am packing for a trip, so I am putting out the call for someone else to find the link. I found it again recently, but I'm not sure where to find it at the moment. Interview was this Spring though. Anyway, the Q&A covers many specifics regarding profitability of work, etc. I do remember that Mr. Gruder mentioned that gross margin would increase substantially with volume of work, due to the fairly significant R&D, infrastructure etc. that has had to be put into place in order to offer and accept contracts with companies of the size Alydaar has recently announced. In other words, the overhead is fixed to a certain extent, tho of course it will increase somewhat with a larger sales volume, but gross margin will rise at a higher-than-traditional ramp for this particular kind of work, using the software conversion program that Alydaar has developed.
Keep in mind that specific EPS #'s don't always mean a whole lot. QNTM is estimated to earn $2.80+ per share for the year ending 3-31-98, yet the stock is stuck at 21ish, for now.
Sorry I can't help more.
DK |
