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Strategies & Market Trends : Commodities - The Coming Bull Market

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To: craig crawford who wrote (912)11/2/2001 4:19:08 PM
From: craig crawford  Read Replies (2) of 1643
 
International commodities report
news.ninemsn.com.au

In London, three-month zinc futures on the London Metal Exchange ended the late kerb higher Thursday, on news of the imminent closure of Outokumpu's 200,000-tons-a-year Tara zinc mine in Ireland.

However, although the market responded quickly, rallying over $25 a metric ton in the immediate aftermath of the news, dealers were quick to refocus on the bleak demand prospects that have afflicted zinc for a number of months and prices fell back around $15/ton by the close. Analysts said continued production cuts won't cause much of a rally but will provide a floor for prices. The closure of the Tara mine brings total zinc production cut announcements this week to around 350,000 tons a year, but some of these mines will have stocks of both concentrate and metal with which to continue supplying customers. Some of the cutbacks may not have any effect on supply until well into 2002. Zinc prices thus remain vulnerable to further downside and an extension of the 13-year low recently set at $763/ton, despite the removal of such a large slice of overall zinc supply, .

This view has been heightened Thursday afternoon by the release of worse-than-expected National Association of Purchasing Managers' index data, which many analysts feel is one of the benchmark U.S. indicators in terms of metal demand. The weak NAPM data had a detrimental effect on the copper and aluminum markets, prompted speculators to sell short which dragged both to fresh 33-month lows at $1,355/ton and $1,270/ton respectively. After an early push higher through resistance at $4,600/ton nickel was dragged lower on copper and aluminum's tail.

In New York, precious metals settled mixed Thursday, with gold futures surging early as the dollar plunged on terrible National Association of Purchasing Managers numbers, only to give back virtually all gains as the dollar and equities markets rebounded.

December gold on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange finished trading 20 cents higher at $280.70 a troy ounce. Gold should consolide in a $275-$285 trading range, dealers said. Comex December silver had a quiet day, falling in tandem with gold as gold came off its highs, ending 1.8 cents down at $4.207 an ounce.

Platinum's rebound on Nymex from lows was attributed to commission house buying, with some trade selling it off the highs at the end. Players might also have been motivated by news that the Russians were once again planning to hold off on shipments of platinum group metals, analysts said. The premium of spot platinum over the January contract came off sharply Thursday, to about $2 from $7 on Wednesday.
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