But I also said that right now, I don't see that happen, as of now, I still have the "Double dip" recession model. If we see massive retrenchment of the consumer here and now, then the turnips will dutifully change their opinion. Right now, the next three months look more or less like the following.
A low in the Dec 14 to 21 window, max downside at 1425 or so, turnips target of 1458 bottom. A very strong rally to late January, possibly into the first week of February with a target high between 1855 and $1934. These two target will definitely change depending on the nature of the December decline. November, after the 7th, will be frustrating to bulls and bears until about expiration, and after expiration I see a more or less straight down "action".
This is the current model, but considering the relative accuracy of the turnips' calls since the January lows this year (the only major snafu was their call for a double bottom Feb 28/ March 8/12, they were early by a solid two to three weeks on the second bottom, and were dead wrong about the original target of 1900 for those bottoms, which they correctly corrected to 1600 plus minus 30 on the breach of 1870), I would say that the time for their committing another major screw up is fast coming...and that is no joke, they will absolutely err and miss a great move one of these days.
Zeev |
