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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners

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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (9490)11/4/2001 7:12:27 PM
From: FR1  Read Replies (1) of 57684
 
I agree with you about Quest. Earlier this year they made bullish statements about how they were going to aggressively pursue VoIP. Then they came out recently talking about cutting CapEx.

The only thing I can figure that made people more bullish is that INTC gave a webcast at the same time which reviewed all industries including optical. They pointed out in the presentation that broadband usage over the last 2 years is much higher than forecasts. This means that regardless of what carriers say they are going to have to face the music and do something about demand.

IMHO, we did not have the enormous optical overbuilding that is popularly believed - this will also help force spending.

I remember hearing reports months ago pointing out that only the DC-Manhattan corridor was clearly overbuilt. There is some argument about the Manhattan-Hollywood corridor but nothing else was overbuilt. The metro market was hardly touched. What happened was that the FED tight money policy in early 2000 ground the whole build out to a halt. Now the availability of money is not the problem. And demand is there. Unfortunately, the tight money bloodbath we went through killed a lot of the competition and left survivors with lots of debt.
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