Bill, I'm in OPWV again at 16...what's your average cost cost?
>Uncertainty marks rollout of next-generation wireless in North America
MATTHEW FORDAHL
Canadian Press
SAN JOSE, Calif. (AP) - Stories of frantic efforts to connect to friends and loved ones through cellphones in New York after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks prompted a surge in demand for wireless devices.
The accounts also hinted at the potential value of next-generation networks that offer more reliable connections, greater call capacity, advanced messaging and fast, always-on Internet access.
But the boost is only temporary for an industry clobbered by the technology slowdown. Analysts say the multibillion-dollar network upgrades necessary for a great wireless leap forward are unlikely for many months, if not years, in the current economic climate.
Last month, Openwave Systems Inc., a leading maker of mobile Internet software and widely viewed as a wireless industry barometer, announced third-quarter losses of three cents a share and cut at least 300 jobs, or 13 per cent of its workforce.
Executives of the Redwood City, Calif.-based company, which sells to nearly all U.S. wireless carriers, said more than terrorism was to blame.
"While the events of Sept. 11 contributed to a delay in the completion of a number of transactions, its real effect was to heighten many of our customers' concerns about the future direction of their businesses," said Alan Black, chief financial officer.
That's business-speak for wireless near-paralysis.
The pace of mobile technology has always been evolutionary, beginning with the first generation of brick-like handsets and car phones. By the mid-1990s, carriers began introducing second-generation digital networks with smaller handsets and more reliable service.
But U.S. networks have fallen behind those abroad, particularly in Japan, where people can surf the Internet and exchange text messages via cellphone nearly as easily as a home computer user in the United States.
The reasons are technical, cultural and financial.
Personal computers aren't as common in Japanese homes as they are in North America. Many in Japan first discovered the possibilities of the Internet from the tiny displays of their cellphones, even with the snail-like transmission rates of second-generation networks.
At the same time, basic functions such as text messaging took off and customers didn't mind paying for the extra features. In the United States, instant messaging over personal computers is free and the service over cellular phones is nowhere near as popular.
Americans also disliked cellphones' minuscule screens and unfriendly keypads.
Japanese carriers facing soaring demand and saturated networks are moving more quickly to third-generation services with expanded capacity. Last month, NTT DoCoMo launched a limited 3G service, which allows users to obtain music and play networked computer games - all on a handset.
In Europe, the transition to a mid-generation technology, dubbed 2.5G, is easier because a single technical standard known as GSM dominates the continent. U.S. carriers use four mostly incompatible standards.
Uniform technologies in Europe and Japan also made it easier and more cost-efficient for developers to make content available for everyone, regardless of carrier.
"They've built up this system where consumers are interested because there's content, and there's content because there are consumers," said Joseph Laszlo, an analyst at Jupiter Media Metrix. "Everybody is happy."
Even so, analysts don't expect ample 3G offerings in Europe until 2003 at the earliest.
Jack Gold, an analyst at the Meta Group, doesn't believe full 3G networks will be widely available in the United States for five to seven years, a view contested by major carriers.
The No.1 carrier in the United States is Verizon Wireless. It has 27.1 million subscribers and says it is previewing its next-generation network in the Philadelphia area for some corporate customers. Few details have been released, other than that transmission speeds will be from 40-60 kilobits per second, or roughly equivalent to a dial-up modem connection.
Cingular, with 20.5 million subscribers, plans 3G services in the "next couple years," said spokesman Clay Owens. AT&T Wireless, with 15.7 million subscribers, will build out its network in 2003-2004, said spokesman Ritch Blasi.
While the upgrades to true 3G would require a complete overhaul, trials of 2.5G by major carriers are underway in some cities, with full rollouts expected next year, the companies say.
The mid-generation service will offer always-on Internet access and speeds up to twice as fast as a standard dial-up modem. |
