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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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To: Stcgg who wrote (82372)	11/5/2001 3:46:02 AM
From: Psycho-Social	Read Replies (2) of 99985

Demographic Cycles: Using a different approach derived from Harry Dent's analysis, I come to somewhat similar conclusions. Since Japan is about 12 years ahead of us, with the end of their birth rate max plateau ending in 1949, we can expect some of the same challenges they're facing during the next 15 years or so. As the # of older people grows and the # of new entrants into the labor force and ranks of consumers shrinks, it gets harder and harder to prop up stock prices in the face of withdrawals by retirees and pre-retirees. Additionally, their spending patterns become more and more conservative, so that even negative real rates of interest have difficulty stimulating consumption. We're in better shape due to legal and illegal immigration, and we may have a few decent years left, but we'll face similar challenges.

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