Here's my analysis of the current "War against terrorism".
I've distinguished three analytical levels:
1./ The Military Tactics Level
This level encompasses the Afghan theatre only. It is very similar to the Vietnam war: as the French pulled back from Indochina, the US came in to repel the Communist threat... Likewise, after the Russians withdrew from Afghanistan, the US were drawn in --seven years later-- to contain the Islamic threat.
Besides, the Vietnam crisis, among other factors, led to the assassination of the US President (JFK). Somehow, that event can be thought of as a clinch with the second level:
2./ The Geopolitical Level
This is the most fascinating level of analysis as the more one develops it, the more intriguing similarities emerge. Basically, it posits the current worldwide terror crisis as a rehash of WWII, provided a geographic eastward shift and the assumption that Vladimir Putin is a new Adolf Hitler. Moreover, a new diplomatic framework has emerged: whereas the first half of the XXth century was characterized by the so-called Gunboat Diplomacy, the incipient XXIst century bears the mark of Terror Diplomacy.
Hence the following "matches":
Germany >> Russia
Nazism >> Judeofascism
Austria >> Israel
1934 assassination of Austrian Chancellor Dollfuss >> assassination of PM Yitzhak Rabin
1938 Anschluss >> Russia's "ideological Anschluss" over Israel
Bolschevism/Communism >> Islam(ism)
Russia >> Muslim world (Pakistan and co.)
Poland >> Afghanistan
Czechoslovakia >> Chechnya
Josef Stalin >> Osama Bin Laden
The Versailles Treaty (1919) >> The ABM Treaty (1972)
The Spanish Revolution (1936) >> The Iranian Revolution (1978) --Note that, although the Spanish revolution was defeated by the Fascist powers, its impact on public opinion was similar to the successful Iranian one...
Lloyd George >> Tony Blair
The Maginot Line >> The NATO Alliance
Moreover, just as the Vietnam crisis led to the "removal" of JFK, the outbreak of WWII led to the dismissal of Neville Chamberlain and the arrival of W. Churchill... There's an important difference, however, between the WWII framework and today's geopolitical landscape: in the 1930s, Western countries were supportive of Nazi Germany because they viewed it as the last bullwark against Communism, hence they felt betrayed by Hitler when they learnt about his (Molotov-Ribbentropp) pact of the Soviet Union and the secret carve-up of Poland. Lloyd George went even as far as claiming that Hitler betrayed the West and the European civilization... Today, European powers put a similar blame on the US for its persistent alliance with Muslim countries.
Hence the following match:
The secret Molotov-Ribbentropp agreement >> The US plan for a Palestinian State
The German-Soviet Collusion >> The US-Arab Collusion (see recent meetings between CIA officials and their Syrian, Lybian counterparts)
Now, the whole scheme of things is blurred by a new, deceptive paradigm: terror diplomacy has replaced the gunboat diplomacy of yore. Furthermore, while Nazi Germany was obsessed about EXPANDING its lebensraum, today's Russia is merely scrambling to MAINTAIN its sphere of influence... And the main characters have changed as well: Vladimir Putin is as phlegmatic as Adolf Hitler was petulant.
Yet, if A. Hitler were still alive, he'd likely congratulate his historical heir, V. Putin. Indeed, Putin carried out the same strategy as Hitler's, albeit on a higher pitch: he stroke westward first, all the same, yet, he did it at the very heart of the Anglo-Saxon empire --in the US (NY, Washington).
In hindsight, Hitler should have done the same. However, ginboat diplomacy was still the overall paradigm in XXth-century intl. relations. So, what would have happened if Hitler had sent off a dreadnought to New York to shell the Empire State building? Or what if V-1 and V-2 flying bombs had been loosed off over London from the onset?
Both Hitler and Putin have been looking for a "free hand" policy toward their eastern border and both knew that Western public opinion had to be neutralized BEFORE any forceful action towards the "enemy of civilization" (Communism/ Islam) So, just as Hitler attacked Western Europe first, Putin devised the 911 terrorist strikes before engaging his armies against the Islamic threat...
3./ Civilization Level
See my Byzantine Europe vs. Roman America posts. |
