| I've been dancing with PVN, trading in and out currently at breakeven and in with a small position @2.14. The value proposition rests on the slender reed that Merrill says the assets should go for somewhere between book - .50 to book + 1.00, that's 7.9 to 9.41. Clearly the market disagrees. Given the relatively high level of debt to equity in any lending institution, it doesn't take much erosion of asset value to have an ugly impact on equity. We are now approaching the point, however, where this could be considered a bit like a warrant or an unexpiring option [unless the co. expires]. In the event of bankruptcy, which, I haven't seen mentioned in analyst reports, there seems to be folks that will bid them up, despite pretty clear evidence that shareholders generally get wiped out in the final resolution. So I figure the downside is probably somewhere between here and .50 to .75 [If they filed tomorrrow]. The upside is something like Merrill's aforementioned 7.90 to 9.40...or whatever someone might pay. Like ENE, this one is a real shot in the dark, so play with play money if you decide to take a flyer. |
