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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity
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To: kodiak_bull who wrote (10292)11/6/2001 3:59:26 PM
From: Raymond Duray  Read Replies (1) of 23153
 
kb,

Re: We won't have another speculative bubble like 1998-2000 for a generation;

If history isn't repealed, you're absolutely correct about this. What I've found that causes these huge bursts or enthusiasm and subsequent panics are new technologies. 1810-Canal Companies, 1837-The First Railroad Bust, 1873-Second RR Bust, 1907-Electricity and The Trusts, 1929-Radio and Autos, 1969-Anything -tronics, 2000-The Internet.....

We will have to find a new engine to get the speculative juices flowing, some new wonderful technological advance that everyone agrees is going to change the world. Then we can speculate and repeat the cycle. Something that's highly unlikely in this capital investment environment.

My feeling is that all the money "on the sidelines" isn't enough to spark a true bull market. For that, we need a good story.

-Ray
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