Pierre, such a high tick is a blow off , particularly hen it come a solid six weeks after a bottom, but it is also an indication that the market psychology is ready to change to more positive on subsequent rallies. I don't think this one is it, and as indicated by others (and I believe I mentioned that last week as well,) the sox here has a lot of overhead supply at the 515/525 area, the inability of many semi-equip to "conquer their turn points" is bearish short term. Also, the lack of good expansion in the new high list (only 59 on the Naz and 111 on the NYSE, we had higher numbers of earlier in the rally) indicates to me that is more likely a "whipsaw" then a launch to test the 1920/1940. Just make sure to get out at those "turn" points if they are hit. As to whether I have my bear suit still zipped, I don't see why not, after all, I put it on just some 40 naz points ago, and since then, I have slowly raised ash from the 40% to above 70%, apart of losing some quite minimal "potential" profits" I am not "hurting".
Zeev |
