Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 219.23

-0.5%

10:05 AM EST

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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (55148)	11/7/2001 9:12:39 AM
From: Alastair McIntosh	of 70976

Jacob, I am slightly less optimistic than you are. I think the next cyclical peak will be pushed out to 2005 as we will probably bounce along a bottom for a year. I don't see any significant capacity sales until 2004. I think utilization rates will be fairly flat next year and while 2003 should see a fair increase in utilization the rates will not be high enough to trigger capacity buys until the following year. Some technology buys (i.e. shrinks) add to capacity. I see sales of $11 to $12 billion in 2005 with earnings of about $3.20. However there will be plenty of good trading opportunities in the meanwhile. I will be a buyer in December looking for a good ride for six months or so. Al

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