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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation

CRSP 54.55

-3.6%

3:27 PM EST

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To: Harold Engstrom who wrote (4895)	11/7/2001 1:29:01 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (2) of 52153

Harold, <BGEN> I'm conflicted. On the plus side I think Amevive will be first to market and will be a success, and Antegren also looks good to me. They also have that surplus manufacturing capacity which should be gold in this current environment. On the negative side, I worry about the MS market - Rebif really does seem to be better than Avonex (although perhaps not as much better as Serono has claimed). The company also seems semi-paralyzed - there just doesn't seem to be any deal-flow despite all they have going for them. So bottom line is I don't know what to think. I cycle between owning a little and owning none - currently I own a little, because I think the chances of near-term upside surprises exceed that of downside surprises. One interesting idea is to own both SRA and BGEN. That hedges against any Rebif inroads in the US. A low interest rate/deflationary environment certainly increases the attractiveness of the first tier biotechs, although BGEN earnings will be hurt some by the lower interest on their big cash position (George's point). Peter

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