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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Lock-Up Expiration Hell Portfolio
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To: tuck who wrote (489)11/7/2001 2:35:33 PM
From: tuck  Read Replies (1) of 1005
 
Elephants stomping KOSN, the spread is still criminal. Strange.

Listened to the BDAL CC. No surprises & no disruptions from 9/11. I think there was some speculative fervor priced in ahead of the call. I've said that here before and BLUE HP shorted the stock on that basis. Justification came when a question was asked about the substance detection business going forward. Management said they saw incremental increases in sales of related consumables and services. As for system sales, nothing aside from the announced DoD order has manifested yet, but there is a lot of budgetary activity. Too early for them to put growth numbers on that business. I suspect that last is what speculators were looking for. With growth rates high and valuation high, they fled when the got no guidance there. BDAL on track, but richly valued. Insiders have sold very little so far. I think BDAL will range from middle teens to lower mid twenties for a while. BLUE HP still looking to cover & go long in the middle teens in case of a general market breather. Note that options players have recently been accomodated. As an aside to Nigel, in particular, they noted SQNM revenue was growing steadily, but accounted for less than 5% of total revenue.

Cheers, Tuck
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