Eric L: Re: <<Suppose for instance that Nokia is successful with the 1x chip they have developed and they continue to grow cdma market share as they are doing right now. Suppose that Samsung, when the technology matures develops and uses their own 1x chip (as they had started to do with IS-95B), and MOT does likewise. 1x is going to be around for a loooooooooooooong time and this is not beyond the realm of possibility. Market share could go from 80+% to 50% overnight, in a market that is growing not growing super fast . Add to that the fact that Qualcomm is banking on a very aggressive 50% market share in GSM/WCDMA chips (where they will be in competition with some really heavy hitters). When they step into the GSM/WCDMA world the competitive advantage that they accrue by being the CDMA gorilla is sharply diminished. Thinking out loud and FWIW.>>
As the old saw goes, "you may be right", but that of course means that you may not. <G>
On the basic point you make that the Q might be smart to spin off the chip making business, I agree with this modification: Right now it is probably just as well that Qualcomm kept the chip design business in house and close. There are several new chips (and most importantly, related software) essential to the mobile wireless data tornado related to the internet/intranet and wireless nexus.
Keeping the key components of that for both the infrastructure requirements and the "terminals" (way beyond simply "phones" BTW) under close control and supervision in house seems sensible.
Perhaps a couple of years or so from now, once the WCDMA aka UMTS hurdle is crossed, then perhaps a spin off would be a good idea.
Curious, to what extend does Nokia rely on Texas Instruments for its "Nokia" chips? Assume the "design" is a collaborative one with Nokia in the lead, and active TI participation. [Note that is not what Qualcomm does - the Q uses foundries, and I assume TI is more than a foundry for Nokia] Would much appreciate your informed view on this.
My interest relates to the Q's possible competition in chips.
And in that Samsung would seem to be the most realistic major competitor down the line, with Texas Instruments an unknown and puzzling possibility. Don't see any way Motorola could be a threat based on its track record and that MOT may actually get out of the chip business itself in the not too distant future.
And BTW, do you see Nokia keeping its chip design in house as essential to Nokia?
Best as always.
Cha2 |
