Mazar-i-Sharif will fall very soon and so will Kabul in my humble opinion. I don't see any problems in the campaign; instant gratification and massive surrender from massive bombing unlike 'rising internet stock prices' is not one of the attributes of this war. Taliban unlike Iraqis have nothing to lose, so the propensity to hide and lie in wait is far higher. Waiting requires a lot of food, energy and ammunition reserve, all these are in short supply. I have no doubt that they will fold sooner than expected.
War and peace will take their own pace. I am convinced that Taliban strength is being overblown out of proportions by a media that is little unaware of the huge damage this bombing has caused to the morale and strength of their rag tag army. In Gulf war
after a long air campaign the war was wrapped up in few days as the Iraqi army surrendered as a result of that infamous Hail Mary loop. The feared republican guards were trapped and the entire army south of Basra gave up. In present case the 50,000 odd Taliban have no chance; the Afghans as a majority are tired from them. This is the reason millions who have escaped from Afghanistan and other two million wanting to come out presently will provide legitimacy to any new governance established in Afghanistan. In case of Russian invasion it was the mainstream Pashtun that led the war of attrition, here it is not the mainstream Pashtun, he has already escaped as a refugee. It is the party and the hard-line group that does not have the mainstream support sticking to power. The narrow power base and their ability to create adversaries all around them is a seed that will destroy them. The Pushtuns are waiting and once Kabul falls you will see a whole sea change of attitude. Valour aside Pushtuns are also famous for selling their enemies short, deceit and price of a head is not an uncommon occurrence. Historically, Afghans have never fought ever before without a massive help from either Russians or Americans, now with end of super power cold war rivalry, they are destined to wither.
Six million Afghans have fled the country, food is available but no communications, Kandhar and Kabul are at a great distance, in absence of food and lack of ammunition supplies where their is no sugar day to dole out 4 billion$ in military and economic aid, these guys economic and strategic fundamentals are as poor as 'growth projections' of some stocks in 1999. The major support under Taliban index is about to give way, the Arabs 55 brigade according to some news have already settled their daughters by marrying them to some Afghans in Kandhar. I am watching this very intently but without any worries the end game of the great game has started, the myth of Afghan invincibility may have some buyers in US but I am 100% sure that they are a spent force. I can say this with confidence as I have heard ‘Daisy cutters’ the ear drums of Iraqis use to bleed with the explosions of these super conventional bombs and I have seen them crying. The People who defend Kabul are very much human and do have eardrums they also cry. |Like Iraqis once eardrums start bleeding and fear overtakes ‘fatalistic camaraderie’ that binds them together they will come out of the shallow trenches. |
