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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis

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To: waverider who wrote (23585)	11/7/2001 9:23:49 PM
From: Joseph Silent	Read Replies (2) of 52237

Waverider .... Would be interesting to see the actual stats on if these formations are really predictive. I'm no expert on candlesticks .... just some general observations. The stats summarize for interpretation. They have no predictive value unless there is reason to believe that the probability laws underlying the process don't change with time. I don't know if anybody believes that is the case. The interesting thing is that we often act as if we do believe it is the case. The other interesting aspect involves what happens when a "critical mass" of folks decide on what a pattern means. By "critical mass" I mean a group who can move a market based on a particular belief and subsequent action. First, they assume a pattern means something with some established likelihood [probability] (which is false, unless the probability laws don't change with time -- a very tall order); then, assuming the pattern means the same thing to all the folks in the group, they all (presumably) take the same action. Why is this interesting? :) It is interesting because the group is acting on false beliefs, based on what the rest of the group is doing (i.e., based on their understanding of the pattern). I'm just rambling now, but I think it's a bit like watching a committee make a decision. If you have ever been unfortunate enough to be in one, you will know what I mean. A critical mass pushes the decision one way or another, based on some false belief. Usually, the most vocal mass wins. Ultimately, all beliefs are false beliefs. That includes the belief that all beliefs are false beliefs. But this is the paradox of our existence. :) J :)

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