Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (10997)	11/8/2001 1:07:05 AM
From: pezz	Read Replies (2) of 74559

Perhaps one should try to analyze what we believe are the right *reasons* stocks go up and look at what are called the wrong reasons. I think conventional thought looks too much to the company / economy and less to the stock in it self.... If fools push up the price of Dot Coms ain't the idea to ride'em up?.........Now I ain't sayin that this is easy mind ya but seems to me that tis a more fruit full and direct way to play this game. I have a friend who does play the ponies...He always bets long shots...I asked him if he really thought that a particular 10 to 1 shot would win. He said that he figured that the odds were 5 to 1 not 10 to 1 and if he made the bet 5 times he would win once and the payoff would be 10.... OK,OK I know it's not the same but the point is I see it as a game of odds and what I must do is find stocks that the odds quoted are not the real odds . A simple risk reward ratio . How I determine my reasons are mostly directly tied to the stock itself.....Not the company. What group is it in . Is that group in favor or not ? What does the tape and chart tell me with regard to supply demand?......Yes I do look at the companies last qt report and the guidance given . And I give this as much credence as I give to any "story" [ such as energy cell , dot com's etc.] That is... what do I think that the street thinks of it [ earnings/ story ] The demand supply ratio is what drives'em IMO.... Mind you I don't care what I think of a companies potential . Just what does the street think! What the hell do I know? After all if the street likes it they supply the demand to push the stock price and that's all we care about....No? Himmmmm......Time to go and pick up tomorrows IBD.

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