LMAO on QCOM
quote.cboe.com
Someone knew that the earnings would be bad.
So they bet against it.
Guess what the crooks did.
Rally the damn thing.
UFB.
quote.cboe.com
Note:
These puts came out of the blue.
I looked a week or so ago and QCOM seemed to be a bet to fall to 45.
Looking again now, it rises.
Some people believe in this stuff, others do not.
Look at KRB. Relatively big bets against it at 30.
So...
KRB rises last couple days.
This market right now is EXTREMELY easy for the MMs to manipulate.
Bulls are nervous, bears are extremely nervous.
We are screwed when we zig, we are screwed when we zag.
I did a P/C analysis that suggested EMLX would be relatively strong. It fell, but guess what. It rallied right on time.
Look at JNPR
11000 bets on 22.5
11000 bets against 22.5
Guess where JNPR finishes.
I should have looked at this when JNPR dipped to 19.
The crooks can hedge either way so who knows. A very very reasonable play would be to sell the 22.5 call and the 22.5 put.
Look at INTC.
quote.cboe.com
Nov 25's are reasonably close
Nov 27.5's are insane.
50,000 bets on 7,000 bets against.
This is a joke.
No way INTC closes above 27.5 (IF - big IF those are not covered calls that the MMs own and thus would profit from if INTC were to close above 27.5) Although this is a BIG IF, it is an extremely likely IF IMHO.
CSCO call options at 17.5 are totally insane. So totally insane IMHO that I believe a decent portion of them just may be covered calls that the MMs own. Look for CSCO to close at precicely 17.5, again IF J6P has those calls.
There are many many reasons to discount pain. In a sharply rising or falling market, it is not useful at all. At or near turning points, you certainly want Pain on your side IMHO.
Best thing to do here is
1) bet on the crooks and that generally means down
2) but if they are hedeged we go higher - sad to say we do not know who owns the calls and puts. e.g, If someone sold 10,000 covered calls and someone bought 10,000 puts at the same price (say 50) it might appear that max pain is at 50. It is not. MMs will benefit to have the stock close at 60 so they can buy the stock at 50 and sell it at 60 (while the puts expire worthless). So pain is at 50, stock is at 60 and it looks like pain did not work. Rest assured pain did work, it just did not look like it.
Thus, be wary of max pain.
When it works it works, when it does not it does not.
I do like to consider the possibilities this close to expiry.
Where did all those QCOM puts come from?
Next time whoever bought all those things should play at least another month out.
M |
