I am ~20% cash in my stock investment accounts and the % is falling. (16% of liquid assets.) I hope the market gives me the opportunity to raise cash to 50% of a bigger pie by Feb, Mar, or possibly, with some old fashioned irrational exuberance, 75-100%.
I disagree with the "garden-variety" characterization. The hindsight numbers, might look that way, but the bubble, the rate decreases, the attack, and the "war", are all unprecedented. I see tech as the one bright spot in a very unhappy and unhealthy world. Moore's law and its equivalents in storage, comm bandwidth, etc. and biotech can create a positive driving force that overcomes or at least diminishes the effects of the world political and economic mess.
For us technology investors, this is a good time and a difficult one. Flexibility is important to make use of volatility and money management to accumulate quality technology stocks, take profits when prices outstrip fundamentals, but build long term positions at low average costs.
At the bottom of the cycle, prices are always high compared to fundamentals, but low compared to potential prices and recent cycle prices. Don't get stuck fighting the market. Don't get paralyzed into doing nothing. Don't try to maximize results by minimizing flexibility. Start creating scenarios for the stocks you buy. Model sales, earnings, growth rates, P/S, PEs. Know what your stock/cash position will be for each stock at various price levels. Publish models here at SI so they may be refined by other's inputs.
We have often railed against people who pretend to "know," but really don't. We needn't bother. We have sufficient mind power here at the AMAT thread to "know" enough to be successful. Each of us must develop personal models for investing and then clearly post the models and the assumptions. We must be open to criticism and refinement, but that is easier to do if we can raise the congeniality level on the thread and take careful pains to make sure we are constructive more than critical. |
