OT re QCOM: You guys are splitting hairs.
1. they didn't warn for the next couple of quarters. They warned for the entire next fiscal year.
2. management is very aware of what the analysts are predicting for future earnings. When a company's management lets that number stand (by saying nothing) they are, de facto, endorsing that number. That's the way the game is played. Management gave a number in the CC, which is lower than the consensus. It's a warning.
3. I am extremely worried about the increasing divergence, between pro forma and GAAP earnings. The pro forma numbers sweep under the rug, the fact that 2 full years of profits from their chipsets and royalties, have evaporated due to failed investments in risky startups. This is a pattern, not a "one-time-only" event. How long is this going to go on?
4. the only reason the stock is up, IMO, is that the rising market tide is lifting all boats, even leaky ones. Once again, just as during the January and April rallies, investors are pricing in a sharp rebound in the fundamentals 6 months out. Maybe they are right this time (although their track record is not encouraging). Hard to imagine a real Bear Market bottom happening with the S&P 500 PE at 30. |
