Larry,
There you go again... talking about fundamentals! Don't you know you'renot allowed to do that! ;->
MU is executing their strategy quite well in the face of derision from the hoards of SI contributors. I must hand it to them, 64 Meg production is a done deal, 256 MB will be the next Gen, but I don't think the profits will flow as TK assumes they will. I'm extremely bearish on business demand for PC's in 1998 as technology upgrades will focus on Y2K solutions, meaning limited new hardware purchases. No analysts seem to be working this into their outlook of market demand for more memory. That will be the underlying problem for all of these tech companies, and expose the gross overvaluations on companies like MU, which will feel the pinch of demand shrink/oversupply.
The TK halflife seems to be at a record level, noting the selloff today. With the drive sector in shambles, people are starting to notice a chink in the PC armor. After June window dressing is complete, we could be facing another Tech selloff (although of lesser magnitude) as we saw last year.
Yes, this is heresy in this Bull market, and we will continue to climb a wall of worry going forwards barring a major currency shock.
Was Hal playing the game today?
Cheers,
Peter Shaw |
