I dunno. The thing I like about the homebuilders is the eventual slowing of their business and the reduction of their earnings is, to my limited imagination and analytical talents, fairly obvious and fairly soon (like, now, I think). As a homeowner, and someone who has marched around through home tours as builders (and homeowners) went overboard during the 90s and built village after village of 3500 to 4500 sq. foot house on quarter acre lots, high end Levittonia, imho, I see the general equational assumption of $105-135/sq foot about to be taken down a notch. Or two. As I've noted before, for a family of 4, any house bigger than 1800 square feet, with just a parking space on the street and a postage stamp backyard, is optional consumption. We don't even need to mention the renting option. In lean years people have to give up optional consumption. A 4500 sq. foot house, with its taxes, heating bills, social expectations is about 2/3 optional consumption, to my simple way of thinking.
As for the chipmakers, I look for guidance from my betters to understand their cycles. |
