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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics

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To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (4403)	11/9/2001 4:37:47 AM
From: Steve Lee	Read Replies (1) of 99280

The bubble did not start in 1999. Take the Dow for example. I'll be generous and start with it at its level of 2000 just before the 87 crash. Compare that with the level 11 years later. Again I'll be generous and use the low of that month, after a big correction, as a comparison - the Dow was 7468. That's an annualised increase of 12.7% for 11 years. Same calculation using the S&P 500 with the same generous comparison points gives an annualised increase of 10.0%. The S&P is probably a better example because of its broader representation. Did GDP grow at an annual 10%? How about S&P earnings? And we are only looking at the period before where you think the bubble started. Both indices are higher today than the end point of the comparison in my example. The bubble is alive and kicking.

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